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Missouri Agricultural Outlook
RaFF Report 2025-21
Authors: Haeun Jo, Danyelle Chinn & Alejandro Plastina.
Download Missouri Agricultural OutlookOverview
This report benefited from information and feedback on early versions provided by the Missouri Department of
Agriculture, Missouri Corn Growers Association, Missouri Soybean Association, Missouri Dairy Association,
Missouri Pork Association, Missouri Poultry Federation, and Missouri Beef Industry Council.
The development of this Report was supported by the US Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief
Economist, Award ID 58-0111-23-017, 58-0111-24-019, and 58-0111-25-003. The findings and conclusions in
this report are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or US
Government determination or policy
Executive Summary
Missouri’s uniquely diverse agricultural climate positions it among the top 10 nationally in more than 10 commodities in 2024, as shown in Table 1. With approximately 85,700 farms and 27 million acres being farmed, over half of Missouri’s land is in production agriculture.¹ The state ranks third nationally for the number of farms, as the loss of 1,900 farms lowers Missouri’s ranking from second in 2023.
Net farm income is projected to increase substantially in 2025, surpassing the previous peak from 2022. According to the Fall 2025 Farm Income Outlook published by the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF), Missouri net farm income is projected to increase by $1.67 billion to $5.07 billion in calendar year 2025, due to an increase in livestock receipts and government payments.
In 2026, farm income is expected to decline by $0.82 billion, driven by lower government payments and inventory changes. Production levels for soybeans, wheat, and rice are projected to decline, but corn and hay production are projected to increase in 2026. Soy, corn, cotton, and rice prices are projected to decline, while hay prices are projected to increase.
On the livestock side, hog inventories are projected to increase, while dairy cow inventories are expected to decline. Broiler production is expected to increase in 2025, while turkey and egg production are projected to decrease.
Farmers and ranchers are facing a projected decline in profit margins in 2026, as crop and livestock receipts lessen. Production expenses are expected to remain stable, but uncertainties remain related to weather, tariffs, and government interaction.
Agricultural producers may benefit from closely reviewing their production plans, projected costs, and living expenses; calculating cash flow needs; and securing access to lines of credit early in the year, if necessary.
This report provides detailed insights into Missouri’s agriculture. Broad economic indicators, including interest and unemployment rates, are discussed before transitioning to an overview of agricultural trends. It then presents an in-depth analysis of 2026 projections for Missouri agricultural commodities.
Table 1. Missouri National Ag Rankings, 2024
|
Ranking |
Category |
|---|---|
|
3rd |
Farms |
|
3rd |
Beef Cows |
|
4th |
Rice |
|
4th |
Hay |
|
5th |
Cotton |
|
5th |
Turkeys |
|
5th |
Meat Goats |
|
6th |
Soybeans |
|
6th |
Cattle |
|
6th |
Breading Hogs |
|
8th |
Corn |
|
9th |
Peanuts |
|
12th |
Broilers |
U.S. & Missouri Economic Profile
The U.S. economy is experiencing persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and evolving trade policies, which continue to weigh on the agricultural sector. At the same time, recent laws have strengthened the farm safety net to help mitigate the negative impacts of market trends on farmers.
Monetary Policy and Unemployment
Two major responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System—the central bank of the United States created by Congress in 1913—are to conduct the nation’s monetary policy in pursuit of full employment and stable prices. During 2024 and 2025, the U.S. labor market experienced a notable cooling period, accompanied by persistent inflation and elevated interest rates.
To stabilize the spiraling inflation of 2022, the Federal Reserve increased the Federal Funds Effective Rate 11 times, from 0.08% in February 2022 to 5.33% in August 2022, and maintained it at that level until October 2024, when the rate was set at 4.83% (Figure 1). After October 2024, U.S. inflation decelerated, moving below 4%, prompting the Federal Reserve to reduce the federal funds target rate twice in the latter half of 2025 to a range of 3.75%–4%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projected in December 2025 that the federal funds effective rate would continue to ease, with median projections of 3.4% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027. Lower interest rates are consistent with the perception of a soft landing. As a prolonged recession was averted, unemployment has edged up to 4.4%—near its long-term average of around 5.7%—and inflation is deescalating toward the long-term target of 2% per year, with the annual CPI at 3% for the 12 months ending in September.
It should be noted that a lower inflation rate is consistent with an increasingly higher general level of prices, although the increase is expected to be smaller in future months. The 10-year average unemployment rate in Missouri is 4.0%. Figure 2 shows changes in Missouri’s unemployment rate. In 2024, unemployment ranged between 3.5% and 3.8%, indicating a stable labor market despite hiring momentum and selective layoffs, particularly in government and manufacturing. The national unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August 2025, a level not seen since late 2021, as the job market cooled under restricted credit conditions, high interest rates, and trade frictions. Missouri’s labor market mirrors national trends, with unemployment rising to 4.1% in July and August 2025.
Figure 1. U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates, 2015 – 2025
Missouri Unemployment and U.S. Interest Rates, 2015-2025
Table 2: U.S. Top Agricultural Exports, Federal Fiscal Year 2024
|
Commodity |
2024 |
|---|---|
|
Soybeans |
$24.47 Billion |
|
Corn |
$13.9 Billion |
|
Beef |
$10.5 Billion |
|
Tree Nuts |
$9.8 Billion |
|
Pork |
$8.6 Billion |
Source: USDA Economic Research Service (ERS).
Table 3. Missouri Top Agricultural Exports, Federal Fiscal Year 2024
|
Commodity |
2024 |
|---|---|
|
Soybeans |
$401.4 Million |
|
Corn |
$367.4 Million |
|
Beef |
$316.1 Million |
|
Tree Nuts |
$247.8 Million |
|
Pork |
$214.3 Million |
Source: USDA Economic Research Service (ERS)
Table 4. Missouri Top Export Partners, 2024 – 2025
|
Commodity |
2024 |
2025 |
|---|---|---|
|
Soybeans |
$6.5 Billion |
$3.01 Billion |
|
Corn |
$4.25 Billion |
$2.11 Billion |
|
Beef |
$0.84 Billion |
$0.24 Billion |
|
Tree Nuts |
$0.83 Billion |
$0.43 Billion |
|
Pork |
$0.67 Billion |
$0.23 Billion |
Source: Missouri Economic Research and Information Center (MERIC).
Missouri Agricultural Economy
The landscape of the agricultural economy in Missouri and the U.S. changes annually. In 2025, Missouri’s producers continued to face challenges from low crop prices, persistent input costs, and trade uncertainties. This section highlights Missouri farm income and key financial indicators.
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product by State (GSP) measures the value added by industries within a state and serves as a key indicator of economic performance and activity. In 2024, Missouri’s GSP totaled $430.1 billion, a 4.6% increase over its 2023 level (Figure 5).
However, the value added by the Missouri farm sector decreased from $17.1 billion in 2023 to $15.4 billion in 2024, a decline of 11%. Over the same period, agriculture’s share of GSP in Missouri fell from 4.0% to 3.4%. By comparison, the farm sector’s average share of GSP over the past decade is 3.6%.
Figure 5. Missouri Gross Domestic Product, 2015 – 2024
Figure 6. Missouri Total Direct Government Payments, 2020 – 2026
Missouri Farm Expenses
In 2024, Missouri’s total agricultural production expenses amounted to $12.3 billion. Production expenses are forecast to be 1% lower in 2025, at $12.2 billion, as some input costs retreat (Figure 10). Through 2026, production expenses are expected to continue declining—an additional 3%—to $12.1 billion, driven by further reductions in feed and seed costs, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel and oils, labor, interest rates, and overhead expenses.
Feed costs, a major driver of livestock production expenses, are expected to decrease sharply from $1.89 billion in 2024 to $1.73 billion in 2025 and further to $1.70 billion in 2026, as crop prices and livestock inventories (particularly for cattle) remain subdued.
Figure 11. Missouri Farm Origin Input Costs by Category, 2020 – 2026
Missouri Livestock Landscape
In this section, we examine the broader landscape of Missouri’s livestock industry, focusing on recent trends. Figure 15 portrays livestock marketings in million pounds of meat from cattle, hogs, broiler chickens, and turkeys. In 2024, Missouri experienced a 1.3% decrease in total meat marketings, falling to 5.37 billion pounds, largely due to lower hog and broiler marketings, while milk marketings continued to decline to 780 million pounds.
In 2025, production is projected to continue a slight decline, reaching 5.17 billion pounds in total, as reductions in hog and turkey marketings outweigh gains in broilers and cattle.
By 2026, meat marketings are projected to recover to 5.26 billion pounds, supported by increases across all categories, especially hogs and broilers. Milk production is also projected to grow after consecutive decreases since 2020.
Missouri’s total livestock receipts are projected to be $7.81 billion in 2026. Cattle receipts consistently account for the largest share of livestock receipts in Missouri, with cattle and calves providing $4.20 billion. Hogs and pigs account for $1.28 billion, while dairy receipts are expected to be $188 million. Among poultry, broilers contribute $1.14 billion, eggs total $575 million, and turkeys bring in $258 million. Other livestock categories contribute $355 million to the total in 2026. Figure 16 shows the total projected receipts and the percentage share of the total for each category.
Figure 16. Missouri Cash Receipts by Animal and Animal Product 2026
Missouri Cattle
Production
As mentioned above, Missouri’s total cattle inventory remained stable from 2024 through 2026. However, the number of marketings, measured per head, decreased for both cattle and calves in 2025, suggesting fewer cattle moving through the production system. For 2026, marketings per head are projected to recover slightly, reaching 1.86 million head marketed, as producers are incentivized to sell more cattle given higher fed cattle prices.
Additionally, marketings measured on a liveweight basis are projected to increase 1.1% in 2026, to 1.52 billion pounds, as the number of heads marketed returns to its 2024 level. Missouri’s average slaughter weight for fed cattle was projected at 1,212 pounds per head in 2025 and is projected at 1,213 pounds per head in 2026. While Missouri is not traditionally a “cattle finishing” state, higher cattle prices and new marketing opportunities may incentivize more producers to finish cattle in-state.
American Foods Group opened the doors of its Missouri beef processing facility, America’s Heartland Packing, in April 2025. With a projected processing capacity of 2,400 head per day, scaling gradually to full capacity over 18 months, this expansion gives producers greater opportunity for price discovery in cattle marketing.
Table 5. Percentage of Calves Sold Out of State, 2024
|
Commodity |
2024 |
|---|---|
|
Missouri |
47% |
|
South Dakota |
27% |
|
Oklahoma |
18% |
|
Texas |
6% |
|
Nebraska |
5% |
|
Kansas |
0% |
Figure 18. Missouri Cattle Flow Chart, 2024 (in head)
As Missouri is one of the top cow-calf production states, evaluating the destination of the state’s calf crop is crucial to understanding its market impact. Table 5 presents a comparison of the percentage of calves sold directly out of state among the top cattle-producing states in the Midwest and southern United States. In 2024, Missouri had the highest percentage of calves sold out of state, at 47%, 3% lower than the previous year. Comparatively, this table illustrates which states, and to what extent, are participating in cattle feeding. Kansas, Nebraska and Texas remain the most cattle feeding intensive states.
Figure 18 shows the various production paths that Missouri’s cattle supply can take. Apart from the 850,000 head (47%) of calves sold out of state in 2024, 16% were retained as replacement heifers, 29% were backgrounded in state, 12% were fed and finished in state, and 64% of calves were fed outside the state of Missouri.
From 2019 – 2024, an average of 13% of calves were fed in state, 17% were retained as beef cow replacement heifers, 48% were sold out of state, 28% were backgrounded in state, and 63% were fed out of state.
As shown in Figure 33, Missouri’s total crop area for major field crops including soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, and rice reached 10.6 million acres in 2024 and is projected to remain close to this level through 2026. The 2024 season was marked by strong acreage for all major crops, benefiting from favorable early-season weather.
The planted acres for soybeans continue to dominate Missouri’s crop landscape, with 5.9 million acres in 2024 and a slight decrease to 5.6 million acres projected in 2025 and 2026. Corn area is estimated at 3.8 million acres by 2025, up from 3.45 million acres in 2024, and projected to stabilize around 3.54 million acres in 2026.
Wheat acres rebounded to 670,000 in 2024, dipped slightly to 640,000 in 2025, and would recover to 711,000 in 2026. Cotton area peaked at 400,000 acres in 2024 before trending down toward 351,000 acres in 2026. Finally, rice acres, after reaching 219,000 in 2024, are estimated to remain stable around 214,000 in 2025 and 199,000 in 2026.
Figure 33. Missouri Planted Acres by Crop, 2015 – 2026
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